A comprehensive evidence report on New South Wales' youth justice system: where the money goes, what the data shows, the impact of bail reform, and why Aboriginal-led alternatives deliver better outcomes. 1 programs mapped. 0 media articles analysed.
On any given night, 184 young people are in NSW detention. Over 70% are unsentenced. Since the 2024 bail reforms, that number is climbing.
A bail crisis, not a crime crisis
Since the Bail and Crimes Amendment Act 2024 (March 2024), detention surged 34% -- from 175 to 234 young people. 85-90% of those refused bail are First Nations children. 79.8% of Aboriginal youth in detention are on remand -- not convicted. The laws were extended for three more years in May 2025.
22.1x Indigenous overrepresentation
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people are 22.1 times more likely to be in detention than non-Indigenous young people. This is one of the highest rates of racial disparity in any justice system globally. Closing the Gap Target 11 requires reducing the rate to 22.3/10,000 — NSW is at 32.
NSW's First Nations youth detention rate is 32 per 10,000 -- well above the national target of 22.3. Despite successive Closing the Gap implementation plans, the rate has not improved. The bail law changes risk making it worse.
$327M/year on youth justice. 66% goes to detention. The cheapest Effective program costs 550x less.
Source: ROGS 2025, Table 17A.1
| Setting | Cost/Day | Cost/Year | What it buys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detention | $2,573 | $939K | 81% reconvicted within 10 years (BOCSAR) |
| Community supervision | ~$493 | ~$180K | Case management, reporting obligations |
| JR site (Maranguka model) | ~$14 | $5-28K | Aboriginal-led, 42% fewer custody days, 5:1 KPMG return |
| JR Mechanism Design | ~$5 | $1,708 | Cheapest Effective program — 550x less than detention |
Source: ROGS 2025, Table 17A.20; KPMG Maranguka assessment; JusticeHub program cost analysis
Mentoring, diversion, sport, cultural programs
Case management, bail support, family intervention
Residential rehab, therapeutic care
Youth detention centres
Source: JusticeHub program cost analysis, March 2026
Where the $327M goes.
| Component | NSW | % of Budget | QLD (comparison) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detention | $217M | 66% | $298M (56%) |
| Community supervision | $109M | 33% | $228M (42%) |
| Group conferencing | $1.1M | <1% | $10.4M (2%) |
Source: ROGS 2025, Table 17A.11
66% of spending goes to detention
NSW spends a higher proportion on detention than QLD. $217M of $327M goes to locking up children at $2,573/day. Group conferencing receives less than half a percent of the budget -- ten times less than QLD.
550:1 — the cost ratio that defines the system
The cheapest Effective program in NSW costs $1,708/year. Detention costs $939,000/year. That is a 550:1 ratio. For the cost of one child in detention, NSW could fund 550 young people in an Effective community program.
1,000 funding records worth $4.6B tracked. Who receives NSW youth justice funding?
| Type | Total | Records | Orgs | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unlinked/Unknown | $2.9B | 109 | 0 | 64% |
| Community Adjacent | $743.4M | 539 | 362 | 16% |
| Intermediary | $640.8M | 289 | 162 | 14% |
| Community Controlled | $306.4M | 49 | 19 | 7% |
| Government | $2.5M | 7 | 6 | 0% |
| University | $432K | 6 | 5 | 0% |
| Peak Body | $10K | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| # | Recipient | Type | Indigenous | Records | Total Value | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Youth Justice - Total expenditure | Unlinked/Unknown | 4 | $1.3B | 27% | |
| 2 | Youth Justice - Detention-based services | Unlinked/Unknown | 6 | $1.2B | 27% | |
| 3 | Youth Justice - Community-based services | Unlinked/Unknown | 4 | $419.1M | 9% | |
| 4 | Wesley Community Services Limited | Community Adjacent | 12 | $204.2M | 4% | |
| 5 | SNOW MEDICAL RESEARCH FOUNDATION LIMITED | Intermediary | 2 | $150.0M | 3% | |
| 6 | Uniting (NSW.ACT) | Community Adjacent | 11 | $143.5M | 3% | |
| 7 | The Benevolent Society | Community Controlled | Yes | 13 | $132.0M | 3% |
| 8 | Mission Australia | Intermediary | 14 | $115.6M | 2% | |
| 9 | Life Without Barriers | Intermediary | 4 | $99.1M | 2% | |
| 10 | Barnardos Australia | Intermediary | 11 | $89.3M | 2% | |
| 11 | Lifestyle Solutions (Aust) Ltd | Community Adjacent | 4 | $80.8M | 2% | |
| 12 | Allambi Care Limited | Community Controlled | Yes | 2 | $55.2M | 1% |
| 13 | Marist Youth Care Limited | Community Controlled | Yes | 9 | $55.0M | 1% |
| 14 | Caresouth Limited | Community Adjacent | 5 | $44.0M | 1% | |
| 15 | PLACE — National Centre for Place-Based Collaboration | Intermediary | 2 | $38.6M | 1% | |
| 16 | Challenge Community Services Limited | Intermediary | 3 | $36.9M | 1% | |
| 17 | The University Of Newcastle | Community Controlled | Yes | 1 | $25.0M | 1% |
| 18 | Cerebral Palsy Alliance | Community Adjacent | 7 | $23.4M | 1% | |
| 19 | Mackillop Family Services Limited | Community Adjacent | 4 | $19.1M | 0% | |
| 20 | St Vincent's Curran Foundation | Intermediary | 2 | $16.0M | 0% | |
| 21 | Burrun Dalai Aboriginal Corporation | Community Controlled | Yes | 2 | $15.4M | 0% |
| 22 | Bridge Housing Limited | Community Adjacent | 1 | $14.4M | 0% | |
| 23 | St George Community Housing Limited | Community Adjacent | 2 | $10.4M | 0% | |
| 24 | The Trustee for the Halloran Trust | Intermediary | 3 | $10.0M | 0% | |
| 25 | Moelis Australia Foundation | Intermediary | 1 | $8.9M | 0% | |
| Top 25 Total | 129 | $4.3B | 93% | |||
NSW's direct youth justice reoffending grants. Every dollar goes to non-Indigenous intermediaries.
| Organisation | Indigenous | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Mission Australia | No | $3.65M |
| Anglicare NT | No | $646K |
| ACC Chaplaincy | No | $417K |
| Presbyterian Social Services | No | $301K |
| CatholicCare Sydney | No | $263K |
| + 13 smaller grants | No | <$195K each |
Zero Aboriginal community-controlled organisations receive reoffending grants.
Source: DCJ/FACS NGO Grant Data; JusticeHub analysis
$5.01B through 2,675 orgs -- 3.2% Indigenous
The broader DCJ/FACS grant pool sends $5.01 billion through 2,675 organisations. Only 86 (3.2%) are Indigenous. The first Aboriginal community-controlled organisation appears at rank 19 (Burrun Dalai, $59M). The top 18 are all intermediaries.
Mounty Yarns: $1M+ philanthropic, $0 govt reoffending
Mounty Yarns in Mt Druitt -- a 20-person Aboriginal-led team with 7 programs, a 100K-view documentary, and NSW's first community-led Youth Justice Roundtable -- receives $1M+ in philanthropic funding from three foundations. It receives zero dollars from the DCJ “Breaking the Cycle of Reoffending” grants.
1 NSW programs mapped by evidence level. 4 Proven, 16 Effective.
4 Proven programs in NSW
NSW has 4 Proven and 16 Effective programs -- a stronger evidence base than most Australian states. Programs like Functional Family Therapy, Multisystemic Therapy, and Youth on Track have rigorous evaluations. The challenge is scale: proven programs reach a fraction of young people in the system.
The gap between evidence and investment
Despite having programs with strong evidence, NSW continues to invest the majority of its $327M budget in detention infrastructure. The bail law changes have directed more young people into the most expensive, least effective part of the system -- precisely where evidence says outcomes are worst.
The NSW youth justice debate has four distinct political camps. The evidence points one direction.
Position: Tougher bail, raise the maximum age of detention, more police powers
Key actors: NSW Government (current), Police Association
Evidence: Contradicts 40 years of criminological evidence. Bail tightening has already produced a 34% detention surge with no reduction in youth offending.
Position: Redirect detention spending to community-led prevention and early intervention
Key actors: JustReinvest NSW, Maranguka, Aboriginal Legal Services, BOCSAR researchers
Evidence: KPMG-validated 5:1 return (Maranguka). 42% fewer custody days in Bourke. 23% drop in domestic violence.
Position: Raise the minimum age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 14
Key actors: Raise the Age Campaign, AHRC, Law Council, UNSW, ATSILS, medical colleges
Evidence: Aligned with UN Convention on Rights of the Child, endorsed by every major medical body. NT and ACT have legislated. NSW has not.
Position: Transfer decision-making authority to Aboriginal communities
Key actors: AbSec, ALS NSW/ACT, Yuwaya Ngarra-li, Koori Justice Panels
Evidence: Maranguka, Koori Courts (15% less reoffending), Yuwaya Ngarra-li (Walgett). Where Aboriginal communities lead, outcomes improve.
The Select Committee on Youth Justice heard evidence that bail reforms would increase remand populations. This prediction has been confirmed -- detention up 34% since March 2024.
Inspections of Cobham and Reiby Youth Justice Centres identified overcrowding, staff shortages, and conditions below minimum standards. Strip search practices flagged as human rights concerns.
NSW crime data consistently shows youth crime has been declining for over a decade. The bail reforms are a response to perception, not trend. Reoffending rates remain high for those who pass through detention.
The Australian Human Rights Commission report called for a fundamental shift from punitive to welfare-based approaches for children. NSW was identified as a jurisdiction where detention is expanding despite falling crime.
The data describes a system. These are the people building the alternatives.
Mounty Yarns is a storytelling project from Western Sydney that gives voice to young people and families affected by the justice system. Their transcripts and recordings document what the system looks like from the inside -- not from ministerial press releases, but from the people who live through it.
Stories from community members navigating youth justice, child protection, and housing systems simultaneously. Every story published with informed consent.Empathy Ledger
“This is what Aboriginal-led looks like”
Maranguka was designed by the Bourke Aboriginal community, not for them. Elders, families, and young people shaped every program element. The result: 42% fewer custody days, 23% drop in DV, 31% rise in Year 12 retention. The KPMG evaluation found a 5:1 return on investment.
Bourke Aboriginal community
Walgett -- Yuwaya Ngarra-li
“We Speak Together” in Gamilaraay. A collective impact initiative led by Elders in Walgett, one of the most disadvantaged communities in NSW. Rather than a single program, it is a governance model: Aboriginal Elders setting priorities for the whole community, with government and NGOs accountable to them.
Walgett Elders, UNSW partnership
What these communities share
Cultural authority that cannot be outsourced. Governance by Elders, not by contract managers. Programs that emerge from community need, not from government tender processes. The evidence shows they work better. The funding system does not reflect this.
82% of children in NSW youth justice were known to child protection. The pipeline is identifiable years in advance.
The pipeline is predictable -- and preventable
82% of children in NSW youth justice had prior child protection contact. For First Nations children: 65%. These are children known to the state years before they enter the justice system. Family support at $3-8K/year could prevent the $898K/year detention pathway. The system chooses the expensive, harmful option.
Aboriginal-led models and evidence-based programs that deliver results. These exist. They are underfunded.
$600K/year cost, $3.1M gross impact. 23% drop in DV. 38% reduction in juvenile offences. 31% rise in Year 12 retention. Australia's most rigorously evaluated JR model.
JustReinvest NSW; KPMG Preliminary Assessment
No increase in reoffending. Culturally appropriate diversionary mechanism operating in several NSW locations. Elders sit with magistrates.
NSW BOCSAR evaluation
Place-based approach -- Baulaarr Bagay Warruwi Burranba-li-gu (Two River Pathway to Change). Won APPI grant November 2025. Submitted to NSW Select Committee March 2026.
Law Society Journal; UNSW Social Determinants of Justice Hub
317 incidents (2024) to 159 (2025). The Oyster Tribe delivers Sustainable, Accessible Youth services. Community safety approaches.
Regional media; DCJ reporting
Youth engagement through animal care, agriculture, and mentoring. Place-based model in regional NSW with strong community endorsement.
BackTrack evaluation reports
The Maranguka model has expanded to six sites. NSW JR Program received $9.8M through the PRF Justice Reinvestment portfolio. All Aboriginal-led.
JustReinvest NSW; NIAA
Across 48 meta-analyses covering 40 years of research: rehabilitation works (OR 1.73 for CBT-based programs), while deterrence-based approaches are slightly harmful (OR 0.85). NSW's bail-driven detention expansion contradicts the entire evidence base. The programs listed above are aligned with what the research says works.
Government sends 3.2% of funding through Indigenous orgs. Philanthropy sends 70.9%. The numbers tell the story.
| Government | Philanthropy | |
|---|---|---|
| Total NSW funding | $5.01 billion | $115 million |
| Organisations funded | 2,675 | 86 |
| Indigenous orgs funded | 86 (3.2%) | 61 (70.9%) |
| "Reoffending" grants to ACCOs | $0 | $81M+ to Indigenous orgs |
| Top recipient | Wesley ($827M, intermediary) | Maranguka ($43M, Indigenous-led) |
| First Indigenous org rank | #19 | #2 |
| Evidence-based programs funded | Mostly untested | 16 Effective, 4 Proven |
Source: JusticeHub DB -- justice_funding table (PRF, Dusseldorp, NIAA, DCJ/FACS sources)
| # | Organisation | Indigenous | Amount | Programs | Funders |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLACE National Centre | $77M | 4 | Dusseldorp, PRF, Minderoo, Ian Potter, Bryan | |
| 2 | Maranguka | Yes | $43M | 11 | PRF, NIAA |
| 3 | Just Reinvest NSW | Yes | $39M | 11 | PRF |
| 4 | The Hive Mt Druitt | $29M | 7 | PRF | |
| 5 | ALS NSW/ACT | Yes | $7M | 2 | PRF |
| 6 | Mounty Yarns | Yes | $7M | 7 | PRF, Dusseldorp, Ritchie |
| 7 | Australian Schools Plus | $5M | 0 | PRF | |
| 8 | Uni of Newcastle | $4M | 0 | PRF | |
| 9 | Justice & Equity Centre | $4M | 0 | PRF | |
| 10 | Justice Reform Initiative | $4M | 0 | PRF |
5 of the top 6 philanthropic recipients with mapped programs are Indigenous-led.
Source: PRF Annual Reports; Dusseldorp Forum YIR 2025; JusticeHub DB
Justice reinvestment, place-based disadvantage
Invested more in NSW JR than the entire govt reoffending grant pool ($9.9M). 100% of JR funding to community-controlled or Indigenous-led orgs.
Indigenous community safety
Funds six active JR sites across NSW: Bourke, Mt Druitt, Moree, Nowra, Cowra, and Kempsey.
Youth, place-based, First Nations
Core co-funder of Maranguka from 2013. Backs Aboriginal-led governance models.
Collaborative place-based model
Multi-funder collaborative (Dusseldorp, PRF, Minderoo, Ian Potter, Bryan Foundation).
Systemic reform, data and evidence
Funds Raise the Age campaign. Invests in data infrastructure for justice reform.
Youth justice
Direct funder of Aboriginal-led youth programs in Western Sydney.
Government funds the system. Philanthropy funds the alternative.
The Paul Ramsay Foundation alone has invested more in NSW justice reinvestment ($40M+) than the total government “Breaking the Cycle of Reoffending” grant pool ($9.9M). 100% of PRF's JR funding goes to community-controlled or Indigenous-led organisations. Government sends 3.2% of its funding to Indigenous orgs. Philanthropy sends 70.9%.
The structural gap: 3.2% vs 70.9%
Government funds 86 Indigenous orgs out of 2,675 (3.2%). Philanthropy funds 61 out of 86 (70.9%). In a system where 60% of detained young people are First Nations, this is not a data quirk -- it is a structural choice. The philanthropic sector has demonstrated it is possible to fund Indigenous-led organisations at scale. Government has not.
Based on the evidence in this report. Not theory -- every recommendation has a working model.
The 34% detention surge is a policy choice, not a crime trend. Revert to pre-March 2024 bail settings. Redirect the estimated $30-40M/year in additional detention costs to community bail support.
Align with the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and the ACT/NT precedent. No child under 14 should be in detention. Invest in therapeutic, family-based responses for under-14s.
The Bourke model is KPMG-validated at 5:1 return. Fund Aboriginal communities to lead justice reinvestment in 10 locations: Walgett, Dubbo, Moree, Kempsey, Redfern, Mt Druitt, Coffs Harbour, Tamworth, Broken Hill, Nowra.
Currently a fraction of funding reaches Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations. Set a binding target: 30% of youth justice funding to ACCOs within three years, with community governance.
Currently no public data on which programs reduce reoffending. Require every funded program to report 12-month reoffending rates, cultural safety metrics, and young person satisfaction.
Circle Sentencing courts show 15% less reoffending. Currently available in limited locations. Fund expansion to every court circuit in NSW with significant Aboriginal populations.
82% of youth justice-involved children were known to child protection. Create a pooled fund across DCJ, Health, and Education to intervene at the child protection stage, not the justice stage.
Release program-level spending, outcome data by program, intermediary overhead ratios, and cultural safety metrics. Transparency is the precondition for accountability.
This report is part of a wider intelligence system. Explore the data, the stories, and the organisations.
QLD Sector Report
Full QLD youth justice sector report -- $536M/year, 90% unsentenced, 484 programs
National Intelligence
All-Australia evidence overview, state-by-state comparison, cost equation
Organisation Directory
1,000 NSW orgs including 7 Indigenous organisations
Funder Landscape
Portfolio comparison, evidence profiles, and funding allocation analysis
Interventions Database
All programs with evidence levels, costs, and outcomes
Intelligence Hub
All reports, regional deep dives, and the evidence library
New South Wales spends $327 million per year on youth justice. 66% goes to detention. Since the bail law changes in March 2024, detention surged 34%. 85-90% of those refused bail are First Nations children.
The state's direct reoffending grants total $9.9 million. Zero Aboriginal community-controlled organisations receive a dollar. The broader DCJ grant pool sends $5 billion through 2,675 organisations -- 3.2% are Indigenous.
Philanthropic funders have taken a different approach. $115 million through 86 organisations -- 70.9% Indigenous-led. Maranguka delivers a 5:1 return. Youth Koori Court delivers 40% less custody. Dubbo halved youth crime. Mounty Yarns built a 20-person team on $1M. The cheapest Effective program costs 550x less than detention.
The NSW Select Committee on Youth Justice reports in December 2026. The evidence is already in.
EXPLORE THE DATA
Data: ROGS 2025, AIHW 2023-24, BOCSAR (BB171, BB162, Custody Statistics), NSW Inspector of Custodial Services, NSW Ombudsman, NSW Auditor-General, DCJ/FACS NGO Grant Data, NSW Select Committee, Senate Inquiry, KPMG (Maranguka), SBS NITV, PRF, Dusseldorp Forum. Stories: Empathy Ledger (published with informed consent and cultural authority). Built by JusticeHub. Select Committee reports December 2026. Senate inquiry reports June 2026.