A comprehensive evidence report on New South Wales' youth justice system: where the money goes, what the data shows, the impact of bail reform, and why Aboriginal-led alternatives deliver better outcomes. 12 programs mapped. 0 media articles analysed.
On any given night, 184 young people are in NSW detention. Over 70% are unsentenced. Since the 2024 bail reforms, that number is climbing.
A bail crisis driving detention numbers
Since the NSW Government tightened bail laws in March 2024, detention numbers have surged 34%. The increase is overwhelmingly children on remand — not sentenced. NSW is not responding to more crime; it is detaining more children who haven't been found guilty, at $2,460/day.
22.1x Indigenous overrepresentation
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people are 22.1 times more likely to be in detention than non-Indigenous young people. This is one of the highest rates of racial disparity in any justice system globally. Closing the Gap Target 11 requires reducing the rate to 22.3/10,000 — NSW is at 32.
NSW's First Nations youth detention rate is 32 per 10,000 -- well above the national target of 22.3. Despite successive Closing the Gap implementation plans, the rate has not improved. The bail law changes risk making it worse.
$327M/year on youth justice. Detention costs $2,460/day per child. Community supervision costs $137/day. The system chooses the expensive option.
Source: ROGS 2025, Table 17A.1
| Setting | Cost/Day | Cost/Year | What it buys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detention | $2,460 | $898K | A concrete cell, 34% surge in numbers, worsening outcomes |
| Community supervision | $137 | $50K | Case management, reporting obligations |
| Maranguka (Bourke) | ~$10 | $3.6K | Aboriginal-led, 42% fewer custody days, 5:1 return |
| Youth on Track | ~$30 | $11K | Early intervention, evidence-based, evaluated |
Source: ROGS 2025; Maranguka KPMG assessment; Youth on Track evaluation
Mentoring, diversion, sport, cultural programs
Case management, bail support, family intervention
Residential rehab, therapeutic care
Youth detention centres
Source: JusticeHub program cost analysis, March 2026
Detention costs 18x more than community supervision
NSW spends $2,460/day per child in detention vs $137/day for community supervision. The 34% surge since bail changes means an estimated additional $30-40M/year in detention costs — money that produces worse outcomes.
Maranguka delivers a 5:1 return at a fraction of the cost
The KPMG-validated Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project in Bourke costs $600K/year and delivers $3.1M in gross impact. A 5:1 return. 42% fewer custody days. 23% drop in domestic violence. Aboriginal-led. Evidence-based. Underfunded.
1,000 funding records worth $3.8B tracked. Who receives NSW youth justice funding?
| Type | Total | Records | Orgs | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unlinked/Unknown | $3.0B | 121 | 0 | 77% |
| Community Adjacent | $383.9M | 516 | 364 | 10% |
| Intermediary | $343.2M | 316 | 176 | 9% |
| Community Controlled | $134.9M | 28 | 17 | 4% |
| Government | $2.5M | 8 | 7 | 0% |
| University | $709K | 10 | 6 | 0% |
| Peak Body | $10K | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| # | Recipient | Type | Indigenous | Records | Total Value | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Youth Justice - Total expenditure | Unlinked/Unknown | 4 | $1.3B | 33% | |
| 2 | Youth Justice - Detention-based services | Unlinked/Unknown | 6 | $1.2B | 32% | |
| 3 | Youth Justice - Community-based services | Unlinked/Unknown | 4 | $419.1M | 11% | |
| 4 | SNOW MEDICAL RESEARCH FOUNDATION LIMITED | Intermediary | 2 | $150.0M | 4% | |
| 5 | Wesley Community Services Limited | Community Adjacent | 5 | $58.8M | 2% | |
| 6 | Allambi Care Limited | Community Controlled | Yes | 2 | $55.2M | 1% |
| 7 | Caresouth Limited | Community Adjacent | 5 | $44.0M | 1% | |
| 8 | PLACE — National Centre for Place-Based Collaboration | Intermediary | 2 | $38.6M | 1% | |
| 9 | Challenge Community Services Limited | Intermediary | 3 | $36.9M | 1% | |
| 10 | The University Of Newcastle | Community Controlled | Yes | 1 | $25.0M | 1% |
| 11 | Mackillop Family Services Limited | Community Adjacent | 4 | $19.1M | 1% | |
| 12 | IBM AUSTRALIA LTD | Community Adjacent | 1 | $18.5M | 0% | |
| 13 | Marist Youth Care Limited | Community Controlled | Yes | 4 | $17.1M | 0% |
| 14 | St Vincent's Curran Foundation | Intermediary | 2 | $16.0M | 0% | |
| 15 | Burrun Dalai Aboriginal Corporation | Community Controlled | Yes | 2 | $15.4M | 0% |
| 16 | Black Dog Institute | Community Adjacent | 2 | $14.7M | 0% | |
| 17 | Bridge Housing Limited | Community Adjacent | 1 | $14.4M | 0% | |
| 18 | St George Community Housing Limited | Community Adjacent | 2 | $10.4M | 0% | |
| 19 | The Trustee for the Halloran Trust | Intermediary | 3 | $10.0M | 0% | |
| 20 | Moelis Australia Foundation | Intermediary | 1 | $8.9M | 0% | |
| 21 | B J Whelan | Unlinked/Unknown | 1 | $8.2M | 0% | |
| 22 | Veritas House | Community Adjacent | 2 | $8.1M | 0% | |
| 23 | The Disability Trust Limited | Intermediary | 2 | $8.1M | 0% | |
| 24 | P.Y.S Paramount Youth Services Pty Ltd | Community Adjacent | 1 | $7.9M | 0% | |
| 25 | SDN Child And Family Services Pty Limited | Community Adjacent | 3 | $7.3M | 0% | |
| Top 25 Total | 65 | $3.5B | 92% | |||
The intermediary question
Across NSW youth justice, the pattern mirrors the national trend: intermediary organisations receive the bulk of government funding while Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations (ACCOs) receive a fraction. When 48% of detained young people are First Nations, the question is whether the funding structure matches the need.
12 NSW programs mapped by evidence level. 4 Proven, 16 Effective.
4 Proven programs in NSW
NSW has 4 Proven and 16 Effective programs -- a stronger evidence base than most Australian states. Programs like Functional Family Therapy, Multisystemic Therapy, and Youth on Track have rigorous evaluations. The challenge is scale: proven programs reach a fraction of young people in the system.
The gap between evidence and investment
Despite having programs with strong evidence, NSW continues to invest the majority of its $327M budget in detention infrastructure. The bail law changes have directed more young people into the most expensive, least effective part of the system -- precisely where evidence says outcomes are worst.
The NSW youth justice debate has four distinct political camps. The evidence points one direction.
Position: Tougher bail, raise the maximum age of detention, more police powers
Key actors: NSW Government (current), Police Association
Evidence: Contradicts 40 years of criminological evidence. Bail tightening has already produced a 34% detention surge with no reduction in youth offending.
Position: Redirect detention spending to community-led prevention and early intervention
Key actors: JustReinvest NSW, Maranguka, Aboriginal Legal Services, BOCSAR researchers
Evidence: KPMG-validated 5:1 return (Maranguka). 42% fewer custody days in Bourke. 23% drop in domestic violence.
Position: Raise the minimum age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 14
Key actors: Raise the Age Campaign, AHRC, Law Council, UNSW, ATSILS, medical colleges
Evidence: Aligned with UN Convention on Rights of the Child, endorsed by every major medical body. NT and ACT have legislated. NSW has not.
Position: Transfer decision-making authority to Aboriginal communities
Key actors: AbSec, ALS NSW/ACT, Yuwaya Ngarra-li, Koori Justice Panels
Evidence: Maranguka, Koori Courts (15% less reoffending), Yuwaya Ngarra-li (Walgett). Where Aboriginal communities lead, outcomes improve.
The Select Committee on Youth Justice heard evidence that bail reforms would increase remand populations. This prediction has been confirmed -- detention up 34% since March 2024.
Inspections of Cobham and Reiby Youth Justice Centres identified overcrowding, staff shortages, and conditions below minimum standards. Strip search practices flagged as human rights concerns.
NSW crime data consistently shows youth crime has been declining for over a decade. The bail reforms are a response to perception, not trend. Reoffending rates remain high for those who pass through detention.
The Australian Human Rights Commission report called for a fundamental shift from punitive to welfare-based approaches for children. NSW was identified as a jurisdiction where detention is expanding despite falling crime.
The data describes a system. These are the people building the alternatives.
Mounty Yarns is a storytelling project from Western Sydney that gives voice to young people and families affected by the justice system. Their transcripts and recordings document what the system looks like from the inside -- not from ministerial press releases, but from the people who live through it.
Stories from community members navigating youth justice, child protection, and housing systems simultaneously. Every story published with informed consent.Empathy Ledger
“This is what Aboriginal-led looks like”
Maranguka was designed by the Bourke Aboriginal community, not for them. Elders, families, and young people shaped every program element. The result: 42% fewer custody days, 23% drop in DV, 31% rise in Year 12 retention. The KPMG evaluation found a 5:1 return on investment.
Bourke Aboriginal community
Walgett -- Yuwaya Ngarra-li
“We Speak Together” in Gamilaraay. A collective impact initiative led by Elders in Walgett, one of the most disadvantaged communities in NSW. Rather than a single program, it is a governance model: Aboriginal Elders setting priorities for the whole community, with government and NGOs accountable to them.
Walgett Elders, UNSW partnership
What these communities share
Cultural authority that cannot be outsourced. Governance by Elders, not by contract managers. Programs that emerge from community need, not from government tender processes. The evidence shows they work better. The funding system does not reflect this.
82% of children in NSW youth justice were known to child protection. The pipeline is identifiable years in advance.
The pipeline is predictable -- and preventable
82% of children in NSW youth justice had prior child protection contact. For First Nations children: 89%. These are children known to the state years before they enter the justice system. Family support at $3-8K/year could prevent the $898K/year detention pathway. The system chooses the expensive, harmful option.
Aboriginal-led models and evidence-based programs that deliver results. These exist. They are underfunded.
KPMG-evaluated. Aboriginal community governance. $600K/year cost, $3.1M gross impact. The most rigorously evaluated justice reinvestment project in Australia.
JustReinvest NSW; KPMG Assessment
Elders sit with magistrates. Cultural authority integrated into the justice process. Operating in multiple NSW locations. Lower reoffending than mainstream courts for comparable offences.
NSW BOCSAR evaluation
Targets 10-17 year olds at risk of reoffending. Uses risk-needs-responsivity framework. Delivered by NGOs. Independently evaluated with positive results.
NSW DCJ evaluation
Not a program -- a governance model. Elders set priorities, government and NGOs accountable to community. UNSW partnership. Addresses root causes across education, housing, health, justice.
UNSW; Yuwaya Ngarra-li consortium
Across 48 meta-analyses covering 40 years of research: rehabilitation works (OR 1.73 for CBT-based programs), while deterrence-based approaches are slightly harmful (OR 0.85). NSW's bail-driven detention expansion contradicts the entire evidence base. The programs listed above are aligned with what the research says works.
Government spends $327M/year on youth justice. Philanthropy contributes ~$45M. They fund very different things.
| Dimension | Government ($327M/yr) | Philanthropy (~$45M/yr) |
|---|---|---|
| Primary investment | Detention infrastructure and operations | Community programs, research, advocacy |
| Approach | Tighter bail, longer sentences, more beds | Prevention, diversion, justice reinvestment |
| ACCO funding | Minority of grants go to ACCOs | Several foundations prioritise ACCOs directly |
| Evidence alignment | Contradicts 40-year meta-analytic consensus | Generally aligned with evidence base |
| Accountability | Low transparency (limited RTI, no outcome data) | Variable -- some publish evaluations, others do not |
| Scale | System-wide but poorly targeted | Place-based but limited reach |
Justice reinvestment, Aboriginal self-determination
Core funder of JustReinvest NSW and Maranguka. Backs Aboriginal-led governance models.
Place-based initiatives, systemic change
Largest Australian philanthropy. Funds community-led approaches to breaking cycles of disadvantage.
Youth, Aboriginal communities, leadership
Long-term funder of Aboriginal community development and youth programs in regional NSW.
Regional and remote communities, arts, health
Funds community infrastructure in remote NSW communities. Arts-based youth engagement.
Systemic reform, data and evidence
Funds Raise the Age campaign. Invests in data infrastructure for justice reform.
Impact investment, social enterprise
Manages social impact bonds for youth justice. Bridges philanthropy and government funding.
Philanthropy funds what government won't
In NSW, philanthropic funders have filled critical gaps: funding the Maranguka evaluation, supporting Raise the Age advocacy, backing Aboriginal-led governance models. Government spends $327M primarily on detention. Philanthropy spends ~$45M primarily on alternatives. The question is not whether alternatives exist -- it is why they remain philanthropically funded rather than publicly funded.
The ACCO funding gap persists
Even in philanthropy, ACCOs receive less than their non-Indigenous counterparts. While foundations like Dusseldorp Forum explicitly prioritise Aboriginal-led organisations, the broader philanthropic sector still channels the majority of funding through intermediaries. In a system where 48% of detained young people are First Nations, this remains a structural problem.
Based on the evidence in this report. Not theory -- every recommendation has a working model.
The 34% detention surge is a policy choice, not a crime trend. Revert to pre-March 2024 bail settings. Redirect the estimated $30-40M/year in additional detention costs to community bail support.
Align with the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and the ACT/NT precedent. No child under 14 should be in detention. Invest in therapeutic, family-based responses for under-14s.
The Bourke model is KPMG-validated at 5:1 return. Fund Aboriginal communities to lead justice reinvestment in 10 locations: Walgett, Dubbo, Moree, Kempsey, Redfern, Mt Druitt, Coffs Harbour, Tamworth, Broken Hill, Nowra.
Currently a fraction of funding reaches Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations. Set a binding target: 30% of youth justice funding to ACCOs within three years, with community governance.
Currently no public data on which programs reduce reoffending. Require every funded program to report 12-month reoffending rates, cultural safety metrics, and young person satisfaction.
Circle Sentencing courts show 15% less reoffending. Currently available in limited locations. Fund expansion to every court circuit in NSW with significant Aboriginal populations.
82% of youth justice-involved children were known to child protection. Create a pooled fund across DCJ, Health, and Education to intervene at the child protection stage, not the justice stage.
Release program-level spending, outcome data by program, intermediary overhead ratios, and cultural safety metrics. Transparency is the precondition for accountability.
This report is part of a wider intelligence system. Explore the data, the stories, and the organisations.
QLD Sector Report
Full QLD youth justice sector report -- $536M/year, 90% unsentenced, 484 programs
National Intelligence
All-Australia evidence overview, state-by-state comparison, cost equation
Organisation Directory
1,000 NSW orgs including 18 Indigenous organisations
Funder Landscape
Portfolio comparison, evidence profiles, and funding allocation analysis
Interventions Database
All programs with evidence levels, costs, and outcomes
Intelligence Hub
All reports, regional deep dives, and the evidence library
New South Wales spends $327 million per year on youth justice. Since the bail law changes in March 2024, detention numbers have surged 34%. Over 70% of detained children are unsentenced.
Aboriginal young people are 22.1x overrepresented in detention. 82% of children in youth justice were known to child protection. The pipeline is identifiable and preventable.
Meanwhile, Maranguka in Bourke delivers a 5:1 return on investment. Koori Courts reduce reoffending by 15%. Yuwaya Ngarra-li in Walgett shows what Elder-led governance looks like. These models exist, they work, and they are underfunded.
The question is not whether alternatives exist. It is why NSW continues to invest in a system that every piece of evidence says does not work.
EXPLORE THE DATA
Data: ROGS 2025, AIHW 2023-24, BOCSAR, NSW Inspector of Custodial Services, NSW Legislative Council, KPMG (Maranguka), AHRC, Senate Inquiry. Built by JusticeHub (justicehub.com.au). Senate inquiry reports June 2026.